Showing posts with label estimating. Show all posts
Showing posts with label estimating. Show all posts

## Thursday, January 5, 2017

### Best...Estimation...Method...Ever!!!

Alright, so estimates suck and we all know it. Plenty of reasons why and models to try to get it right. But hey, were human and we're subject to all kinds of flaws. Well, here's a method that a colleague and I came up with as a joke at first. But now that I think more about it...it seems to be just as good (maybe better than) as any other method.

What you'll need:

1 sheet of paper, whatever size.
1 writing device (pen, pencil, marker, crayon, go crazy
1 coin with 2 different sides (heads/tails)

What to do:

Step 1: Prepare by drawing a circle on the paper and place paper on flat horizontal surface (desk or floor).

Step 2: Pick a number for the task as a starting point. esty := n;

Step 3: Flip the coin at the paper.

Step 4: If coin lands in circle, return esty.

Step 5: If coin is heads, increase esty and loop back to Step 3.

Step 6: Decrease esty and loop back to Step 3.

Why is this method awesome? Because first of all you use your gut to produce the original estimate - always go with your gut.

Second of all, if you really feel strongly about your number, then you'll hit the circle. Else, the randomness of the coin introduces some real-world randomness that you'll encounter in the real-world...for real!

Some models call this a Monte-Carlo factor and use some pseudo-random number generator to add pseudo-reality to the equation...that's weak compared to the good old trusty randomness of a Wheat-Back Penny!

Be sire to break down those tasks a bit. You wouldn't want a single coin toss to determine the fate of the whole project - you want more samples to produce the desired results!

Oh, and generally I'd use a scale for the numbers like: .5, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32,... In hours. If you throw bigger than 32 (that's more than full week if you really get down to it) maybe you better break it down a bit more.

Ok, there you have it! Make those circles and start tossing your way to successful estimation!

## Thursday, July 10, 2014

### You will never get good requirements until you ask

It never fails...ever.

Screenshots with no urls, incomplete if not confusing information, unclear images, lack of details...

It can be frustrating at times, but the important thing to remember is that your job is better than being homeless. That is probably the hardest job of all.

Every work day on my walk to and from the office I pass the same half-dozen homeless people - both ways. They are in the same spot, every day, rain or shine, cold or hot rattling off the same line as hundreds of people ignore their pitch. Much like entrepreneurs, if they don't make a sale they starve. Are you going to starve if you don't get complete requirements?

What can you do? Have a conversation with the app owner, others who may know about the application (of course that can be a wild goose chase at times), or perhaps the customer. It drives me crazy when I get incomplete details and the first thing I'm asked is "how long will this take". I typically reply with something like "I'll have to look into it and get back to you". But here's the real hitch - how do you know how long it will take until you do look into the details?

Here's a scenario, probably all too common - developer (let's call him Adam) gets some hot change that cannonballs in out of left field. Adam is asked how long the change will take (especially because the managers want to evaluate whether or not the change is worthwhile), however Adam is not very familiar with the legacy ball of wax application that he inherited from 50 other developers who have their junk in their, and a whole bunch of cruft to pile on top of that.

From the requestor's POV it's just a text change to a field, or adding a checkbox, from Adam's POV it's pandora's box - or at least it should be. However, we frequently forget about so many hidden-inputs to the time-to-live equation. These are often swept under the rug in the developer's mind and those on the other side of the code have no idea unless you bring them into your world. If the requestor is on your team you can do this effectively by outlining each hidden-input in your world and tying times to each of these. Here is a start to the hidden-input equation:

1. Familiarity with the code - this is a biggie, esp if you have a ball of wax or some other poorly organized, debt riddled solution.

2. Familiarity with the language/technology - of you don't know how to write JQuery that well, you will spend more time looking up functions and special selectors. This can add significant time. Also, there are environmental technologies and config/set-up concerns that might add significant time as well.

3. Deployment - is this automated? Will there be some special considerations? Do you know how to do this, or will you need to learn?

4. The existing state of the solution - does it build? will there be tons of dependencies to upgrade? Can you navigate it? Do you have access to retrieve it?

5. Communications and Planning - will there be 7 hours of meetings per week related to this project? How much planning and documentation is involved?

6. Interference - How much time do you spend supporting other applications? How about other people? How about random administration tasks and duties?

7. Requirements - How solid are the requirements? Do they consider what the user doesn't want? Any degenerative cases? Edge cases?

8. Your technical environment- Is your machine a dog? Or is it relatively quick and efficient? Are your servers dogs?

9. Your health - Are your fingers broken? Are you on the fringe of a meltdown? Are you going through some stuff at home? Guess what? Those will affect your productivity! Consider it.

10. Testing - Who's on the hook for testing? Are there automated tests? Unit Tests? Web Tests? Do you need to develop them to support the change?

There's a good start, I like to make a list or put in tasks for each action item and adjust the times for each according to other items that have an effect, or if you have a project management system - adjust resource allocation percentages.

One task should always be - Research Existing Code.
Another would be - Update Documentation.
And another for each environment - Prepare for Deployment and Deploy to {env}

I like this approach because it gives meaning to the estimate and transparency to the reality of what you need to do to make the request happen. Otherwise, when you say "this will take 48 hours of work and two weeks to complete" you won't get a response like "WHAT!" and then a look like you are worthless and incompetent. If you break it down, the rquestor will be able to see how much work is involved. Also, put in a disclaimer of sorts highlighting the risks (interference, "my mother is in poor health so I may be taking a few days off", I can't type so fast with no fingers). Look to the SEC filings for public companies and see how they disclose risk. (RNDY) You probably don't have to go that far, but it's a good model.

Keep in mind that the requestor is probably super-busy and under pressure, they probably don't have time to be pedantic about creating requirements, you have to dig for clarity sometimes. They also will want things done asap, but keep them informed!

## Thursday, July 3, 2014

### Time is Fleeting

When you think something will take only 2 hours, and didn't really look at what needs to be done you may end up spinning your wheels and burn up a whole day before you know it.

I learned this lesson (once again today) and on reflection should have put a bit more thought into the whole amount of work that needs to be done rather than just the development task in a bubble.

One thing I definitely should have done is to consider the technology at hand and how foolish it is to expect it to behave as I would've wanted it to. K2 SmartForms (WebForms via custom designer interface) doesn't always play nice with customizations. That's one input to the time equation.

The next is the custom control that plugs in an autocomplete. I don't know it's limitations either, until now.

Then there is deployment, set-up time, configuration, troubleshooting, testing, etc.

Don't forget to think of all the work and any technical debt or knowledge debt involved when giving an estimate. Put it on a list, or in your work tracking system along with the coding tasks so you and your managers can plan accordingly.